> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.nationalism.io/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.nationalism.io/how-demographics-can-change.md). # How demographics can change Each nation state can be made up of one or multiple ancestral groups and they could also have people from the same ancestral groups but that came from other countries that have a different culture. Changes in the demographic composition of the population such as around ancestral groups and people with different cultural backgrounds can result in different outcomes for how a society is governed. The demographics of a nation could change for a number of reasons. Some of those reasons are more difficult to control and influence than others. Understanding how demographics can change is important as it will help with thinking about how a nation’s population and its demographics, politics and culture could change over time due to decisions around migration and who receives citizenship and voting power. Let’s now cover the four main factors that influence demographic change. ## **Immigration** Immigration is when people migrate into a country. A nation decides who they want to invite into their country and this decision will directly impact the demographics of the population. This type of demographic change is the most easy to control. A nation could decide to stop allowing in any more immigrants at any point and they can also change which other countries they want to accept immigration from. ## **Emigration** Emigration is when people migrate out of a country. People living inside a nation are able to emigrate to other countries when there are visas from other countries that they can apply for. A nation cannot easily force another country to not accept their people as migrants. Emigration is difficult to control as it would be excessively authoritarian to prevent people from moving somewhere else. Problems caused by immigration could be an influencing factor that increases people’s desire to emigrate to other countries. For instance, if the migrants that come into a country are committing crimes or exhibiting behaviours that the ancestral population doesn’t like they might decide to leave the country and emigrate somewhere else. Another problem is around welfare usage. If the migrants that come into the country are more reliant on state welfare this could result in a need for higher tax rates to pay for those costs. Some people within the ancestral population may decide to emigrate to other countries where the tax rates are lower. Even small rates of immigration from certain groups could result in the emigration of people that might now want to leave the country. ## Reproduction When other ancestral groups are invited into a country the two key reproduction variables to consider that result in demographic change includes the amount of children each family has and the average age of the mother when they conceive. The higher the amount of children conceived and the lower the average age of the mother when conceiving the faster the potential growth rate of that population. Even small differences in these rates of reproduction for any distinct group will eventually lead to demographic changes. All groups could be having more or less children than is required to reach replacement level. Exceeding the replacement level would mean the overall population is growing in size. However, it is the differences in the rates of reproduction across distinct groups that will determine how demographics will change within the population. Another reproduction related factor that will change a population’s demographics is whether ancestral groups decide to have children with people from their same ancestral group or from other groups. Each group’s choice of who they reproduce with will change the ancestral demographics of the nation. A nation could try to protect a certain ancestral group through targeted incentives that supports the families from those groups. However, apart from these types of incentives a nation has little control over the rates of reproduction as it is down to people’s own personal decisions on who they reproduce with. The choice of if and when they have kids, how many kids they want to have and whom they have kids with is a personal decision made by each couple. ## **Death** When someone dies they are longer part of a population’s demographics. The age that people pass away and the reasons why they passed could be different on average for each group. There could be some genetic reasons why some groups die earlier on average than others such as due to their genetic predisposition to certain diseases and different health risks. Cultural decisions could also play a part in influencing their lifestyle, such as what kind of food they eat or whether they adopt cousin marriages that can then result in inbred offspring. Differences in how a group behaves, what they do for work and how they sleep are just some examples of things that could influence when someone might pass away on average due to their environment and personal choices. Another reason some groups may pass away at different rates is their involvement in dangerous crime or whether they participate in military operations during periods of war. Internal conflict could result in the death of certain groups within a nation and it might also result in the emigration of certain groups. A nation could try to provide further support and public services to groups that are dying from preventable diseases. It could also try to help with preventing people from adopting detrimental behaviours that can harm their health. If public policy is already reasonable around things like sanitation, vaccinations, healthcare access, medical screenings and other health polices then beyond this there is little a nation can do to easily influence the rates of mortality across different groups. Each individual will make decisions on a daily basis that can influence the likelihood of whether they pass away sooner or later. ## **Changing demographics & group differences** Immigration, emigration, reproduction and death are all factors that will influence the rate of change for a population’s demographics. Immigration is the only factor that is easy to control. A nation can stop any further immigration at any given point in time. Emigration cannot be easily controlled as each individual has freedom of choice to move to other places if those other places are happy to accept them. Rates of reproduction can only be somewhat influenced by incentives, but it is hard to place much confidence in these incentives being a reliable solution for meaningfully influencing demographics. The rates in which people pass away is also difficult to influence as each person’s own genetics and personal choices will play a large role in influencing when they pass away. Understanding that there are great difficulties with controlling the rate of demographic change helps to highlight the importance of understanding group differences and taking these into account when making migration related decisions. Demographics could rapidly change within a country due to migration policy decisions, this could have happened both due to the rates of immigration but also due to the rates of reproduction and emigration. Any nation that decides to accept a moderate to large amount of migrants into their nation needs to understand and accept the possibility that the differences that those groups have could become the dominant part of the population in the future if they give them a path to permanent settlement. Ancestral replacement, changing religious preferences or completely different social norms and behaviours could become a new reality due to migration decisions that enable other groups to become the new dominant population and culture in the future. ## **Citizenship and voting power considerations** The difficulty in controlling demographic change increases the importance of thinking about who will receive citizenship and voting power. If migrants are given citizenship and voting power the difficulty in reversing those changes becomes more difficult when using the same political system. It would not be compelling to believe that the migrants who receive citizenship would be interested in voting for policies that could result in them being deported from the country. Migrants that receive citizenship have a direct incentive to protect their own interests, and this includes staying within the country even if the ancestral population no longer wants them to remain in the country anymore. Demographic change can also create feedback loops. Migrant communities may create networks that encourage further migration. Native emigration may accelerate local demographic change. Political changes may alter future immigration rules. Fertility rates may converge or diverge across generations depending on integration, education, religion and economic conditions. Ancestral populations do not need to give migrants citizenship, and if they do give people citizenships there could be future conflicts around how those citizenships are revoked if the ancestral population changes their mind on who they want to live with. Problems with group differences might not have presented themself meaningfully in the beginning when migrants were initially accepted into a country in a small number. But as demographics change the differences between each group can become more visible and prominent. This can eventually lead to an environment where disputes and conflicts emerge if those differences are not actually accepted at scale by the ancestral population. The ancestral population may need to reclaim their self-determination to better guarantee their continuity as a distinct group if problems emerge due to historical citizenship decisions. If a nation’s population wants to have more control over how it changes over time it benefits from understanding the differences that exist between groups and taking these differences into account before making any migration policy decisions or decisions around who can become a citizen.